Looking at the chart below, we observe a few key points:
- It took roughly 800 years for the world population to increase from 500 million to 1 billion.
2. It took only 170 years for the population to jump from 1 billion to 8 billion. Which means that in just 170 years, the global population has increased eightfold and it continues to rise.
Human population growth data
There is an intense worldwide debate on whether we are overpopulated or underpopulated. Some theories even suggest that humans will go extinct within the next few hundred years. However, believers of the underpopulation argument have several logical points:
- The total fertility rate has seen a steep decline from 5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.5 children per woman today.
- The fertility rate is projected to fall below the critical level of 2.1 children per woman.
- The human population is expected to peak at around 10 billion people by 2080, after which it will begin to decline.
Notable figures such as Elon Musk and Bill Gates have expressed concern about falling birth rates. They advocate for an increase in the number of births worldwide and clearly Elon Musk strongly believes in this theory as a father to 14 children. In many developed countries, the average number of children per woman is below 2.1, the replacement level. These nations face many serious challenges, including:
- Economic Slowdown: These arguments are merely excuses used by businesses focused on profit. Life cannot and should not be reduced to a balance sheet.
- Fewer Caregivers: Two major trends contribute to this issue. Firstly, life expectancy has increased from about 40 years a few decades ago to roughly 75 years today, and it is projected to reach 85 years by 2100. Secondly, the percentage of older individuals is expected to increase from the current 15% to 22% in the next two decades. This shift necessitates the development of more care centers which could be aided by AI and automation.
- Religious and Cultural Conflict: Increased migration brings together people of different ideologies and religions, sometimes leading to cultural conflicts. The solution for this could be for countries open to migration to be very selective regarding both the quality and quantity of immigrants they accept.
I completely disagree with the concerns raised by Elon Musk and Bill Gates. To elaborate, Desmond Morris, in his book ‘The Human Zoo’, makes a chilling observation: “Wild animals in natural conditions do not mutilate themselves, attack their offspring, develop ulcers, fetishes, suffer from obesity, exhibit homosexual behavior, commit murder, or commit suicide.”
These behaviours were observed in zoos, meaning that many of the social ills seen in human society come from our modern, artificial environment since we are not living in a concrete jungle, but a concrete zoo.
The issue is not about providing food, healthcare, or shelter for 10 billion people. For example, in India which is the world’s most populous country with approximately 1.4 billion people, 800 million rely on government food schemes, while only 80 million pay income tax. Every nation struggles with massive GDP deficits due to social schemes, and during the COVID-19 pandemic, 80% of many populations lacked the funds to buy vaccines. Although we have extended life expectancy, this increase has also led to old-age suffering. Also, despite luxury improving living standards and providing a sense of social satisfaction, it has also increased anger, intolerance, and impatience among people. One major reason for the decline in childbirth is the high cost of raising a child; much like the concept of “Cost to Company” (CTC), there is a significant “Cost to Parents” (CTP).
Even if the total fertility rate falls to 1.75, it would take almost 900 years for humans to vanish from this planet. This scenario is unlikely, however, because within the next 100 years we will benefit from brilliant innovations and advanced facilities that will address these challenges. Companies similar to “ECTOLIFE” could become a reality, making the mass production of humans within reaching distance. As science advances, we may also reach a point where traditional reproduction using eggs and sperm becomes unnecessary, with stem cell technology taking its place. Since chimpanzees share 98.8% of our DNA, modifying their genes to produce humans in a controlled setting might not be such a far-fetched idea.
The global workforce, particularly the group aged 25 to 40, is essential to society. In the future, we might even see humans being produced in labs, with individuals emerging from incubation at age 20 and then returning to incubation after age 40. Those who keep talking about empathy, sympathy, and moral values should read the bestselling book The Selfish Gene , which suggests that many of our values are simply masks for satisfying our own egos. Once laboratory production of humans becomes feasible, everything could change. These changes can occur within the next few decades, meaning that while we need not worry about the distant future, our focus should be on the next 50 years.
Ultimately, the human race on Earth could be wiped out only by:
- Political greed, or
- An asteroid impact.
Everything else will eventually stabilize, as stated and shown by the laws of nature.
